TMDX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
TransMedics Group Inc is a commercial-stage medical technology company transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients across multiple disease states... Show more
Why Is TransMedics Group (TMDX) Stock Down -2.15% Today?
Key Takeaways
- TMDX shares closed down 2.15% at $94.93, following a 19.7% after-hours drop on May 5 after Q1 earnings.
- Primary catalyst: Q1 earnings miss with adjusted EPS of $0.30 versus $0.62 expected; revenue of $173.9 million slightly below $174.5 million forecast.
- Revenue grew 21% year-over-year, driven by U.S. OCS liver and logistics services, but margins compressed due to higher operating expenses.
- Trading volume on May 5 reached 2.19 million shares, above the three-month average of about 950,000.
- Healthcare sector (XLV ETF) rose 0.39%, highlighting TMDX's underperformance.
- Traders watch full-year guidance of $727-757 million revenue (20-25% growth), clinical programs, and analyst reactions.
Opening Summary
TransMedics Group (TMDX), a commercial-stage medical technology company developing the Organ Care System (OCS) to improve organ transplant therapy, saw its shares close at $94.93 on May 5, 2026, down 2.15% from the prior close of $97.08. The decline accelerated in after-hours trading with a sharp selloff triggered by first-quarter earnings released after the bell, which missed key profitability expectations despite solid revenue growth.
Q1 Earnings Miss Drives Selloff
TransMedics reported Q1 2026 revenue of $173.9 million, up 21% from $143.5 million a year earlier and nearly in line with the $174.5 million consensus. Growth was fueled by increased utilization of the OCS platform, particularly for liver transplants in the U.S. National OCS Program, and expanded logistics services with a fleet of 22 owned aircraft. However, adjusted EPS came in at $0.30, down 59% year-over-year and well below the $0.62 forecast, as gross margins slipped to 58% and operating expenses surged 45% to $87.9 million amid investments in R&D and commercialization. Net income fell to $7.3 million from $25.7 million. The market reaction reflected disappointment over profitability pressures, with shares gapping down sharply after hours.
Analyst Reactions and Sentiment Shift
Post-earnings, Oppenheimer downgraded TMDX to Perform from Outperform, citing negative sentiment despite operational progress. Piper Sandler cut its price target to $120 from $160 while maintaining Overweight. Consensus remains Moderate Buy with an average target around $155, but the earnings miss has prompted scrutiny of rising costs and execution risks in scaling the transplant ecosystem.
Market Context and Trading Activity
Volume on May 5 totaled 2.19 million shares, more than double the three-month average of approximately 950,000, indicating heightened investor reaction to the earnings. The stock broke below key technical support near its 50-day moving average around $116, hitting a new 52-week low. While the broader healthcare sector, as tracked by the XLV ETF, gained 0.39%, TMDX diverged sharply, underperforming peers amid company-specific concerns. Year-to-date, shares are down over 20%, contrasting with mixed sector performance.
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What Comes Next for TMDX
TransMedics reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $727-757 million, implying 20-25% growth, with potential updates as clinical enrollments in programs like ENHANCE Heart and DENOVO Lung progress. Key focus areas include European logistics expansion via investment in PAD Aviation, OCS Kidney development, and CHOPS preservation system rollout in Q3. Next earnings are slated for late July. Risks include transplant ecosystem volatility from U.S. policy changes, margin pressures from investments, and competition in organ preservation. Analyst expectations center on sustained OCS adoption and profitability recovery.
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Momentum Indicator for TMDX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TMDX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TMDX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TMDX just turned positive on May 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where TMDX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TMDX advanced for three days, in of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 270 cases where TMDX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TMDX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TMDX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.513) is normal, around the industry mean (10.736). P/E Ratio (18.030) is within average values for comparable stocks, (63.336). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.691). TMDX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (4.907) is also within normal values, averaging (23.759).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TMDX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TMDX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a developer of a proprietary system for preserving human organs for transplant
Industry MedicalNursingServices